Comments on: The next big thing will start out looking like a toy http://cdixon.org/2010/01/03/the-next-big-thing-will-start-out-looking-like-a-toy/ Wed, 08 Feb 2012 16:40:53 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Have a disruptive offering? Here are 5 tips for achieving widespread adoption « Something Ventured http://cdixon.org/2010/01/03/the-next-big-thing-will-start-out-looking-like-a-toy/comment-page-2/#comment-17322 Have a disruptive offering? Here are 5 tips for achieving widespread adoption « Something Ventured Sun, 29 Jan 2012 23:52:10 +0000 http://cdixon.org/?p=2321#comment-17322 [...] why people would want to use a disruptive offering. That’s why they commonly start off being dismissed as toys. To progress beyond the tech fanboys who love to play with new stuff, you have to make people [...] [...] why people would want to use a disruptive offering. That’s why they commonly start off being dismissed as toys. To progress beyond the tech fanboys who love to play with new stuff, you have to make people [...]

]]> By: The iPad and Amazon Methods of Transforming Customer Behavior « takingpitches http://cdixon.org/2010/01/03/the-next-big-thing-will-start-out-looking-like-a-toy/comment-page-2/#comment-17300 The iPad and Amazon Methods of Transforming Customer Behavior « takingpitches Fri, 27 Jan 2012 05:27:31 +0000 http://cdixon.org/?p=2321#comment-17300 [...] user resists, consistent with Clay Christensen’s observation that the disruptive invention first looks like a toy, harmless to incumbent competitors, unappealing for mainstream customer use because it might have [...] [...] user resists, consistent with Clay Christensen’s observation that the disruptive invention first looks like a toy, harmless to incumbent competitors, unappealing for mainstream customer use because it might have [...]

]]> By: Energy R&D is a Good Thing, Even for Cleantech, Even Despite Solyndra | EfficiencyLaw.com Energy R&D is a Good Thing, Even for Cleantech, Even Despite Solyndra | Energy Efficiency & Cleantech http://cdixon.org/2010/01/03/the-next-big-thing-will-start-out-looking-like-a-toy/comment-page-2/#comment-16178 Energy R&D is a Good Thing, Even for Cleantech, Even Despite Solyndra | EfficiencyLaw.com Energy R&D is a Good Thing, Even for Cleantech, Even Despite Solyndra | Energy Efficiency & Cleantech Sun, 11 Dec 2011 02:40:41 +0000 http://cdixon.org/?p=2321#comment-16178 [...] Clay Christensen points out, new technologies are, at first, dismissed as toys.  But cleantech is no longer just [...] [...] Clay Christensen points out, new technologies are, at first, dismissed as toys.  But cleantech is no longer just [...]

]]> By: Why is so much of Silicon Valley obsessed with small ideas that don't solve a problem? - Quora http://cdixon.org/2010/01/03/the-next-big-thing-will-start-out-looking-like-a-toy/comment-page-2/#comment-15663 Why is so much of Silicon Valley obsessed with small ideas that don't solve a problem? - Quora Tue, 22 Nov 2011 19:40:53 +0000 http://cdixon.org/?p=2321#comment-15663 [...] [...] [...] [...]

]]> By: Hackathon Yale » Miles Lasater Blog http://cdixon.org/2010/01/03/the-next-big-thing-will-start-out-looking-like-a-toy/comment-page-2/#comment-15636 Hackathon Yale » Miles Lasater Blog Sun, 06 Nov 2011 01:47:57 +0000 http://cdixon.org/?p=2321#comment-15636 [...] Dave Tisch from Techstars NYC kicked off the program urging everyone to build something that personal solves a problem or is a fun toy.  (Because as Chris Dixon says, the next big thing may start out looking like a toy.) [...] [...] Dave Tisch from Techstars NYC kicked off the program urging everyone to build something that personal solves a problem or is a fun toy.  (Because as Chris Dixon says, the next big thing may start out looking like a toy.) [...]

]]> By: Are you Siri-ous? Siri is just a toy, and that’s OK. « @akumar overflow http://cdixon.org/2010/01/03/the-next-big-thing-will-start-out-looking-like-a-toy/comment-page-2/#comment-15514 Are you Siri-ous? Siri is just a toy, and that’s OK. « @akumar overflow Thu, 20 Oct 2011 02:07:37 +0000 http://cdixon.org/?p=2321#comment-15514 [...] great post in Jan '10 called 'The next big thing will start off looking like a toy' (http://cdixon.org/2010/01/03/the…). Siri is a great example of [...] [...] great post in Jan '10 called 'The next big thing will start off looking like a toy' (http://cdixon.org/2010/01/03/the&#8230 ;) . Siri is a great example of [...]

]]> By: Quora http://cdixon.org/2010/01/03/the-next-big-thing-will-start-out-looking-like-a-toy/comment-page-2/#comment-15513 Quora Thu, 20 Oct 2011 02:05:57 +0000 http://cdixon.org/?p=2321#comment-15513 <strong>Are you Siri-ous? Siri is just a toy, and that's OK....</strong> Chris Dixon wrote a great post in Jan '10 called 'The next big thing will start off looking like a toy' (http://cdixon.org/2010/01/03/the-next-big-thing-will-start-out-looking-like-a-toy/). Siri is a great example of this. The leading indicator that... Are you Siri-ous? Siri is just a toy, and that’s OK….

Chris Dixon wrote a great post in Jan ’10 called ‘The next big thing will start off looking like a toy’ (http://cdixon.org/2010/01/03/the-next-big-thing-will-start-out-looking-like-a-toy/). Siri is a great example of this. The leading indicator that…

]]> By: True innovation often starts with kids’ toys … « AppCarousel http://cdixon.org/2010/01/03/the-next-big-thing-will-start-out-looking-like-a-toy/comment-page-2/#comment-15502 True innovation often starts with kids’ toys … « AppCarousel Tue, 18 Oct 2011 13:28:51 +0000 http://cdixon.org/?p=2321#comment-15502 [...] It reminds me of a blog article I read last year by Chris Dixon, the founder of Hunch, who said: “The next big thing will start out looking like a toy.”  A really interesting read at http://cdixon.org/2010/01/03/the-next-big-thing-will-start-out-looking-like-a-toy/ [...] [...] It reminds me of a blog article I read last year by Chris Dixon, the founder of Hunch, who said: “The next big thing will start out looking like a toy.”  A really interesting read at http://cdixon.org/2010/01/03/the-next-big-thing-will-start-out-looking-like-a-toy/ [...]

]]> By: Higher Education’s Toughest Test | TechCrunch http://cdixon.org/2010/01/03/the-next-big-thing-will-start-out-looking-like-a-toy/comment-page-2/#comment-14650 Higher Education’s Toughest Test | TechCrunch Tue, 19 Jul 2011 20:06:39 +0000 http://cdixon.org/?p=2321#comment-14650 [...] tenet of Clayton Christensen’s theory of disruptive innovation is that potential disruptive threats are often dismissed as “toys.” If [...] [...] tenet of Clayton Christensen’s theory of disruptive innovation is that potential disruptive threats are often dismissed as “toys.” If [...]

]]> By: Bitcoin Wallet for Android http://cdixon.org/2010/01/03/the-next-big-thing-will-start-out-looking-like-a-toy/comment-page-2/#comment-14556 Bitcoin Wallet for Android Wed, 06 Jul 2011 07:26:20 +0000 http://cdixon.org/?p=2321#comment-14556 [...] instantly, anywhere in the world. This is a potentially very disruptive technology, even if it looks like a toy [...] [...] instantly, anywhere in the world. This is a potentially very disruptive technology, even if it looks like a toy [...]

]]> By: cdixon.org – chris dixon's blog / The next big thing is sitting right in front of you http://cdixon.org/2010/01/03/the-next-big-thing-will-start-out-looking-like-a-toy/comment-page-2/#comment-14538 cdixon.org – chris dixon's blog / The next big thing is sitting right in front of you Sun, 03 Jul 2011 01:13:31 +0000 http://cdixon.org/?p=2321#comment-14538 [...] reminder that the next big thing always starts out looking like a toy. [...] [...] reminder that the next big thing always starts out looking like a toy. [...]

]]> By: Higher Education’s Toughest Test | JetLib News http://cdixon.org/2010/01/03/the-next-big-thing-will-start-out-looking-like-a-toy/comment-page-2/#comment-14460 Higher Education’s Toughest Test | JetLib News Sun, 19 Jun 2011 21:23:47 +0000 http://cdixon.org/?p=2321#comment-14460 [...] tenet of Clayton Christensen’s theory of disruptive innovation is that potential disruptive threats are often dismissed as [...] [...] tenet of Clayton Christensen’s theory of disruptive innovation is that potential disruptive threats are often dismissed as [...]

]]> By: Higher Education’s Toughest Test | JetLib News http://cdixon.org/2010/01/03/the-next-big-thing-will-start-out-looking-like-a-toy/comment-page-2/#comment-14461 Higher Education’s Toughest Test | JetLib News Sun, 19 Jun 2011 21:23:47 +0000 http://cdixon.org/?p=2321#comment-14461 [...] tenet of Clayton Christensen’s theory of disruptive innovation is that potential disruptive threats are often dismissed as [...] [...] tenet of Clayton Christensen’s theory of disruptive innovation is that potential disruptive threats are often dismissed as [...]

]]> By: Higher Education’s Toughest Test | Tech Stuff http://cdixon.org/2010/01/03/the-next-big-thing-will-start-out-looking-like-a-toy/comment-page-2/#comment-13531 Higher Education’s Toughest Test | Tech Stuff Mon, 25 Apr 2011 03:59:49 +0000 http://cdixon.org/?p=2321#comment-13531 [...] tenet of Clayton Christensen’s theory of disruptive innovation is that potential disruptive threats are often dismissed as “toys.” If [...] [...] tenet of Clayton Christensen’s theory of disruptive innovation is that potential disruptive threats are often dismissed as “toys.” If [...]

]]> By: Higher Education’s Toughest Test | Askingly.com http://cdixon.org/2010/01/03/the-next-big-thing-will-start-out-looking-like-a-toy/comment-page-2/#comment-13483 Higher Education’s Toughest Test | Askingly.com Sun, 24 Apr 2011 19:38:06 +0000 http://cdixon.org/?p=2321#comment-13483 [...] tenet of Clayton Christensen’s theory of disruptive innovation is that potential disruptive threats are often dismissed as “toys.” If [...] [...] tenet of Clayton Christensen’s theory of disruptive innovation is that potential disruptive threats are often dismissed as “toys.” If [...]

]]> By: Higher Education’s Toughest Test | http://cdixon.org/2010/01/03/the-next-big-thing-will-start-out-looking-like-a-toy/comment-page-2/#comment-13474 Higher Education’s Toughest Test | Sun, 24 Apr 2011 17:02:21 +0000 http://cdixon.org/?p=2321#comment-13474 [...] tenet of Clayton Christensen’s theory of disruptive innovation is that potential disruptive threats are often dismissed as “toys.” If [...] [...] tenet of Clayton Christensen’s theory of disruptive innovation is that potential disruptive threats are often dismissed as “toys.” If [...]

]]> By: Higher Education’s Toughest Test | The Good NET Guide http://cdixon.org/2010/01/03/the-next-big-thing-will-start-out-looking-like-a-toy/comment-page-2/#comment-13472 Higher Education’s Toughest Test | The Good NET Guide Sun, 24 Apr 2011 16:14:30 +0000 http://cdixon.org/?p=2321#comment-13472 [...] tenet of Clayton Christensen’s theory of disruptive innovation is that potential disruptive threats are often dismissed as “toys.” If [...] [...] tenet of Clayton Christensen’s theory of disruptive innovation is that potential disruptive threats are often dismissed as “toys.” If [...]

]]> By: Higher Education’s Toughest Test | MakeNoise http://cdixon.org/2010/01/03/the-next-big-thing-will-start-out-looking-like-a-toy/comment-page-2/#comment-13471 Higher Education’s Toughest Test | MakeNoise Sun, 24 Apr 2011 16:09:14 +0000 http://cdixon.org/?p=2321#comment-13471 [...] tenet of Clayton Christensen’s theory of disruptive innovation is that potential disruptive threats are often dismissed as “toys.” If [...] [...] tenet of Clayton Christensen’s theory of disruptive innovation is that potential disruptive threats are often dismissed as “toys.” If [...]

]]> By: Social BPM and HIMS and Routine Clerical Work » Process for the Enterprise http://cdixon.org/2010/01/03/the-next-big-thing-will-start-out-looking-like-a-toy/comment-page-2/#comment-12170 Social BPM and HIMS and Routine Clerical Work » Process for the Enterprise Fri, 18 Feb 2011 04:16:17 +0000 http://cdixon.org/?p=2321#comment-12170 [...] mature HumanEdj offering.  It is a fair criticism, but I’d point him to Chris Dixon’s blog post on the subject of “toys” : The reason big new things sneak by incumbents is that the next big thing always starts out being [...] [...] mature HumanEdj offering.  It is a fair criticism, but I’d point him to Chris Dixon’s blog post on the subject of “toys” : The reason big new things sneak by incumbents is that the next big thing always starts out being [...]

]]> By: cdixon.org – chris dixon's blog / The “thin edge of the wedge” strategy http://cdixon.org/2010/01/03/the-next-big-thing-will-start-out-looking-like-a-toy/comment-page-2/#comment-11796 cdixon.org – chris dixon's blog / The “thin edge of the wedge” strategy Mon, 27 Dec 2010 00:58:53 +0000 http://cdixon.org/?p=2321#comment-11796 [...] a feature,” or that game mechanics on geo apps like Foursquare are just faddish “toys.” Some go so far as to argue that the tech startup world as a whole is going through phase of [...] [...] a feature,” or that game mechanics on geo apps like Foursquare are just faddish “toys.” Some go so far as to argue that the tech startup world as a whole is going through phase of [...]

]]> By: Envisioning the future of Facebook Groups. - Cue The Future http://cdixon.org/2010/01/03/the-next-big-thing-will-start-out-looking-like-a-toy/comment-page-2/#comment-11552 Envisioning the future of Facebook Groups. - Cue The Future Tue, 02 Nov 2010 06:14:11 +0000 http://cdixon.org/?p=2321#comment-11552 [...] 1. Vision: predict what your customers want before anyone knows they’d use it. The next big thing looks like a toy. [...] [...] 1. Vision: predict what your customers want before anyone knows they’d use it. The next big thing looks like a toy. [...]

]]> By: Disruptive Improvements vs Iterative Improvements http://cdixon.org/2010/01/03/the-next-big-thing-will-start-out-looking-like-a-toy/comment-page-2/#comment-8038 Disruptive Improvements vs Iterative Improvements Wed, 05 May 2010 16:34:06 +0000 http://cdixon.org/?p=2321#comment-8038 [...] worry though, your disruptive innovation will be treated like a toy at first if it’s good. This entry was posted in Agile, Customer Development, Lean, business and tagged Disruptive [...] [...] worry though, your disruptive innovation will be treated like a toy at first if it’s good. This entry was posted in Agile, Customer Development, Lean, business and tagged Disruptive [...]

]]> By: Follow Fridays – Chris Dixon and Hunch | Sweet Spot Strategy http://cdixon.org/2010/01/03/the-next-big-thing-will-start-out-looking-like-a-toy/comment-page-2/#comment-7971 Follow Fridays – Chris Dixon and Hunch | Sweet Spot Strategy Sat, 01 May 2010 05:57:46 +0000 http://cdixon.org/?p=2321#comment-7971 [...] The Next Big Thing Will Start Out Looking Like a Toy – Covers disruptive technology similar to my post on disruptive products [...] [...] The Next Big Thing Will Start Out Looking Like a Toy – Covers disruptive technology similar to my post on disruptive products [...]

]]> By: Disruptive Innovation | Solomon Giles Design http://cdixon.org/2010/01/03/the-next-big-thing-will-start-out-looking-like-a-toy/comment-page-2/#comment-7887 Disruptive Innovation | Solomon Giles Design Thu, 22 Apr 2010 14:22:10 +0000 http://cdixon.org/?p=2321#comment-7887 [...] tend to get better at a faster rate than users’ needs increase. From this simple insight follows all kinds of interesting conclusions about how markets and products change over time. 22. Apr, [...] [...] tend to get better at a faster rate than users’ needs increase. From this simple insight follows all kinds of interesting conclusions about how markets and products change over time. 22. Apr, [...]

]]> By: Hyperbio » Blog Archive » Chris Dixon on the next big thing http://cdixon.org/2010/01/03/the-next-big-thing-will-start-out-looking-like-a-toy/comment-page-2/#comment-7842 Hyperbio » Blog Archive » Chris Dixon on the next big thing Tue, 13 Apr 2010 12:24:30 +0000 http://cdixon.org/?p=2321#comment-7842 [...] a startup founder you need to understand that: Disruptive technologies are dismissed as toys because when they are first launched they “undershoot” user needs. The first telephone could [...] [...] a startup founder you need to understand that: Disruptive technologies are dismissed as toys because when they are first launched they “undershoot” user needs. The first telephone could [...]

]]> By: How Intel Screwed Itself Out Of The iPad Revolution (INTC, AAPL) « Apple News Daily http://cdixon.org/2010/01/03/the-next-big-thing-will-start-out-looking-like-a-toy/comment-page-2/#comment-7694 How Intel Screwed Itself Out Of The iPad Revolution (INTC, AAPL) « Apple News Daily Thu, 08 Apr 2010 09:21:53 +0000 http://cdixon.org/?p=2321#comment-7694 [...] XScale had mindshare, scale and design wins, but Intel gave up. Why focus on these PDA/toys when we can win [...] [...] XScale had mindshare, scale and design wins, but Intel gave up. Why focus on these PDA/toys when we can win [...]

]]> By: How Intel Screwed Itself Out Of The iPad Revolution | oolaah http://cdixon.org/2010/01/03/the-next-big-thing-will-start-out-looking-like-a-toy/comment-page-2/#comment-7683 How Intel Screwed Itself Out Of The iPad Revolution | oolaah Wed, 07 Apr 2010 16:03:35 +0000 http://cdixon.org/?p=2321#comment-7683 [...] XScale had mindshare, scale and design wins, but Intel gave up. Why focus on these PDA/toys when we can win [...] [...] XScale had mindshare, scale and design wins, but Intel gave up. Why focus on these PDA/toys when we can win [...]

]]> By: Finance Geek » How Intel Screwed Itself Out Of The iPad Revolution (INTC, AAPL) http://cdixon.org/2010/01/03/the-next-big-thing-will-start-out-looking-like-a-toy/comment-page-2/#comment-7682 Finance Geek » How Intel Screwed Itself Out Of The iPad Revolution (INTC, AAPL) Wed, 07 Apr 2010 14:32:16 +0000 http://cdixon.org/?p=2321#comment-7682 [...] XScale had mindshare, scale and design wins, but Intel gave up. Why focus on these PDA/toys when we can win [...] [...] XScale had mindshare, scale and design wins, but Intel gave up. Why focus on these PDA/toys when we can win [...]

]]> By: Finance Geek » How’s My Fake VC Portfolio Doing? http://cdixon.org/2010/01/03/the-next-big-thing-will-start-out-looking-like-a-toy/comment-page-2/#comment-7681 Finance Geek » How’s My Fake VC Portfolio Doing? Wed, 07 Apr 2010 13:14:04 +0000 http://cdixon.org/?p=2321#comment-7681 [...] The opportunity: financial information is a huge market. And when the biggest incumbent deliberately keeps its product broken to lock its customers in, you know it’s ripe for disruption. As we know, the future of information is real time and social, and financial information is no different. By first piggy-backing on Twitter and now building its own platform, StockTwits has created a dead simple, useful platform for real time, social market information. Of course, StockTwits can’t compete head on with Bloomberg (yet!): it’s mostly just a fun and useful toy for day traders. But from the telephone (described by the President of Western Union as a “toy”) on down to perhaps the iPad, the great disrupting innovations started out as toys. [...] [...] The opportunity: financial information is a huge market. And when the biggest incumbent deliberately keeps its product broken to lock its customers in, you know it’s ripe for disruption. As we know, the future of information is real time and social, and financial information is no different. By first piggy-backing on Twitter and now building its own platform, StockTwits has created a dead simple, useful platform for real time, social market information. Of course, StockTwits can’t compete head on with Bloomberg (yet!): it’s mostly just a fun and useful toy for day traders. But from the telephone (described by the President of Western Union as a “toy”) on down to perhaps the iPad, the great disrupting innovations started out as toys. [...]

]]> By: Internet Predictions from 1995 « Five Years Too Late http://cdixon.org/2010/01/03/the-next-big-thing-will-start-out-looking-like-a-toy/comment-page-2/#comment-7084 Internet Predictions from 1995 « Five Years Too Late Sat, 20 Feb 2010 11:55:55 +0000 http://cdixon.org/?p=2321#comment-7084 [...] and mid 90s. As Chris Dixon would say – the old economy (and its media) thought the Internet was a toy. Flash forward fifteen years and the Internet does all the things Stoll highlights. Instant catalog [...] [...] and mid 90s. As Chris Dixon would say – the old economy (and its media) thought the Internet was a toy. Flash forward fifteen years and the Internet does all the things Stoll highlights. Instant catalog [...]

]]> By: Every time an engineer joins Google, a startup dies cdixon.org – chris dixon's blog http://cdixon.org/2010/01/03/the-next-big-thing-will-start-out-looking-like-a-toy/comment-page-2/#comment-6828 Every time an engineer joins Google, a startup dies cdixon.org – chris dixon's blog Fri, 12 Feb 2010 00:55:32 +0000 http://cdixon.org/?p=2321#comment-6828 [...]  The bigger the company, the more likely it suffers from agency issues, strategy taxes, and myopia. But most of all: nothing is more motivating and inspiring than the sense of ownership and [...] [...]  The bigger the company, the more likely it suffers from agency issues, strategy taxes, and myopia. But most of all: nothing is more motivating and inspiring than the sense of ownership and [...]

]]> By: iPad: A New Toy or Opportunities for the Taking? « Social Media Marketing http://cdixon.org/2010/01/03/the-next-big-thing-will-start-out-looking-like-a-toy/comment-page-2/#comment-6595 iPad: A New Toy or Opportunities for the Taking? « Social Media Marketing Fri, 05 Feb 2010 13:06:04 +0000 http://cdixon.org/?p=2321#comment-6595 [...] Dixon wrote earlier this month that the next big thing will likely be dismissed as a toy–too often we [...] [...] Dixon wrote earlier this month that the next big thing will likely be dismissed as a toy–too often we [...]

]]> By: Incumbents cdixon.org – chris dixon's blog http://cdixon.org/2010/01/03/the-next-big-thing-will-start-out-looking-like-a-toy/comment-page-2/#comment-6163 Incumbents cdixon.org – chris dixon's blog Tue, 26 Jan 2010 13:11:44 +0000 http://cdixon.org/?p=2321#comment-6163 [...] disruptive, you most likely will go unnoticed by the incumbents for a long time (because it looks to them like a toy). If the your technology is sustaining and you get noticed early you probably want to try to sell [...] [...] disruptive, you most likely will go unnoticed by the incumbents for a long time (because it looks to them like a toy). If the your technology is sustaining and you get noticed early you probably want to try to sell [...]

]]> By: Four Tech “Toys” That Turned Out to Be the Next Big Thing | Exectweets http://cdixon.org/2010/01/03/the-next-big-thing-will-start-out-looking-like-a-toy/comment-page-2/#comment-6148 Four Tech “Toys” That Turned Out to Be the Next Big Thing | Exectweets Mon, 25 Jan 2010 16:01:23 +0000 http://cdixon.org/?p=2321#comment-6148 [...] at Techdirt, we’re discussing Chris Dixon’s excellent point that the next big thing will start out looking like a toy. His point is that truly disruptive innovations don’t necessarily start out that way, and to [...] [...] at Techdirt, we’re discussing Chris Dixon’s excellent point that the next big thing will start out looking like a toy. His point is that truly disruptive innovations don’t necessarily start out that way, and to [...]

]]> By: Minimalist Design:sure, Feature Focused:ok, but which APIs/Platforms? » Victus Spiritus http://cdixon.org/2010/01/03/the-next-big-thing-will-start-out-looking-like-a-toy/comment-page-1/#comment-6135 Minimalist Design:sure, Feature Focused:ok, but which APIs/Platforms? » Victus Spiritus Sun, 24 Jan 2010 18:31:39 +0000 http://cdixon.org/?p=2321#comment-6135 [...] inspiration behind this improv thought riff is Chris Dixon’s post “the next big thing will start out looking like a toy”. In it Chris talked about how the most disruptive startups and technologies appear incapable of [...] [...] inspiration behind this improv thought riff is Chris Dixon’s post “the next big thing will start out looking like a toy”. In it Chris talked about how the most disruptive startups and technologies appear incapable of [...]

]]> By: Disruptive Innovations Always Look Like Toys http://cdixon.org/2010/01/03/the-next-big-thing-will-start-out-looking-like-a-toy/comment-page-1/#comment-6004 Disruptive Innovations Always Look Like Toys Thu, 21 Jan 2010 06:00:34 +0000 http://cdixon.org/?p=2321#comment-6004 [...] concise and accurate review of Clayton Christensen's concept of disruptive innovation, disruptive technologies initially are viewed as "toys" in the minds of the entrenched market leaders: "The reason big new things sneak by incumbents [...] [...] concise and accurate review of Clayton Christensen's concept of disruptive innovation, disruptive technologies initially are viewed as "toys" in the minds of the entrenched market leaders: "The reason big new things sneak by incumbents [...]

]]> By: Process for the Enterprise » Blog Archive » Toys of Today http://cdixon.org/2010/01/03/the-next-big-thing-will-start-out-looking-like-a-toy/comment-page-1/#comment-5955 Process for the Enterprise » Blog Archive » Toys of Today Mon, 18 Jan 2010 14:13:44 +0000 http://cdixon.org/?p=2321#comment-5955 [...] of Today January 18th, 2010 by Scott Francis Chris Dixon recently wrote that the next big thing will start out looking like a toy.  No, he’s not presaging the rise of toys as the next trend in retail or tech (although, [...] [...] of Today January 18th, 2010 by Scott Francis Chris Dixon recently wrote that the next big thing will start out looking like a toy.  No, he’s not presaging the rise of toys as the next trend in retail or tech (although, [...]

]]> By: Collective knowledge systems cdixon.org – chris dixon's blog http://cdixon.org/2010/01/03/the-next-big-thing-will-start-out-looking-like-a-toy/comment-page-1/#comment-5934 Collective knowledge systems cdixon.org – chris dixon's blog Sun, 17 Jan 2010 16:49:14 +0000 http://cdixon.org/?p=2321#comment-5934 [...] most people thought Wikipedia was a wacky project that would at best end up being a quirky “toy” encyclopedia. Instead it has become a remarkably comprehensive and accurate resource that [...] [...] most people thought Wikipedia was a wacky project that would at best end up being a quirky “toy” encyclopedia. Instead it has become a remarkably comprehensive and accurate resource that [...]

]]> By: The next big thing will start out looking like a toy | Igniting Startups - nPost http://cdixon.org/2010/01/03/the-next-big-thing-will-start-out-looking-like-a-toy/comment-page-1/#comment-5919 The next big thing will start out looking like a toy | Igniting Startups - nPost Wed, 13 Jan 2010 15:34:27 +0000 http://cdixon.org/?p=2321#comment-5919 [...] From cdixon.org [...] [...] From cdixon.org [...]

]]> By: The next big thing will start out looking like a toy | Digital Asset Management http://cdixon.org/2010/01/03/the-next-big-thing-will-start-out-looking-like-a-toy/comment-page-1/#comment-5885 The next big thing will start out looking like a toy | Digital Asset Management Mon, 11 Jan 2010 08:24:56 +0000 http://cdixon.org/?p=2321#comment-5885 [...] The next big thing will start out looking like a toy cdixon.org – chris dixon’s blog. [...] [...] The next big thing will start out looking like a toy cdixon.org – chris dixon’s blog. [...]

]]> By: Flow » Blog Archive » Daily Digest for January 7th - The zeitgeist daily http://cdixon.org/2010/01/03/the-next-big-thing-will-start-out-looking-like-a-toy/comment-page-1/#comment-5845 Flow » Blog Archive » Daily Digest for January 7th - The zeitgeist daily Thu, 07 Jan 2010 13:38:51 +0000 http://cdixon.org/?p=2321#comment-5845 [...] Shared The next big thing will start out looking like a toy. [...] [...] Shared The next big thing will start out looking like a toy. [...]

]]> By: ShanaC http://cdixon.org/2010/01/03/the-next-big-thing-will-start-out-looking-like-a-toy/comment-page-1/#comment-5842 ShanaC Thu, 07 Jan 2010 05:51:52 +0000 http://cdixon.org/?p=2321#comment-5842 You know, I don't own a Wacom Pad but I think a heavily interfaced and touch screen enabled Wacom like device would be a lot of fun. Especially if it had some sort of plasticly physical pushback no matter where you touched or wrote/drew on it, and was web enabled. <br><br>The reason we use mice is that the shoulder-wrist movements are the limiting factor of screen movements if you want an external device that can move on an xy coordinate system. A pencil/stylus is actually better because you can use your fingers too, but its much harder without the pushback of the material- and coloring is always a children's activity. You know, I don't own a Wacom Pad but I think a heavily interfaced and touch screen enabled Wacom like device would be a lot of fun. Especially if it had some sort of plasticly physical pushback no matter where you touched or wrote/drew on it, and was web enabled.

The reason we use mice is that the shoulder-wrist movements are the limiting factor of screen movements if you want an external device that can move on an xy coordinate system. A pencil/stylus is actually better because you can use your fingers too, but its much harder without the pushback of the material- and coloring is always a children's activity.

]]> By: ShanaC http://cdixon.org/2010/01/03/the-next-big-thing-will-start-out-looking-like-a-toy/comment-page-1/#comment-5841 ShanaC Thu, 07 Jan 2010 05:45:13 +0000 http://cdixon.org/?p=2321#comment-5841 You're a smart guy about predicting the future when it comes to the social sciences You're a smart guy about predicting the future when it comes to the social sciences

]]> By: taicrane http://cdixon.org/2010/01/03/the-next-big-thing-will-start-out-looking-like-a-toy/comment-page-1/#comment-5840 taicrane Thu, 07 Jan 2010 02:51:45 +0000 http://cdixon.org/?p=2321#comment-5840 That's an interesting insight. That's an interesting insight.

]]> By: taicrane http://cdixon.org/2010/01/03/the-next-big-thing-will-start-out-looking-like-a-toy/comment-page-1/#comment-5839 taicrane Thu, 07 Jan 2010 02:50:34 +0000 http://cdixon.org/?p=2321#comment-5839 That's an interesting insight!!! That's an interesting insight!!!

]]> By: Print publishers disrupted — Lars Tong Strömberg http://cdixon.org/2010/01/03/the-next-big-thing-will-start-out-looking-like-a-toy/comment-page-1/#comment-5835 Print publishers disrupted — Lars Tong Strömberg Wed, 06 Jan 2010 13:05:46 +0000 http://cdixon.org/?p=2321#comment-5835 [...] Today I really had one of those moments reading first a post in Galleycat with some very strange predictions by Richard Curtis´ on book publishing 10 years in the future contrasted by an, in my view, a lot more enlightened piece by Chris Dixon building on Clayton M. Christensen´s theories on disruptive technologies. [...] [...] Today I really had one of those moments reading first a post in Galleycat with some very strange predictions by Richard Curtis´ on book publishing 10 years in the future contrasted by an, in my view, a lot more enlightened piece by Chris Dixon building on Clayton M. Christensen´s theories on disruptive technologies. [...]

]]> By: choard http://cdixon.org/2010/01/03/the-next-big-thing-will-start-out-looking-like-a-toy/comment-page-1/#comment-5752 choard Tue, 05 Jan 2010 19:06:08 +0000 http://cdixon.org/?p=2321#comment-5752 Great read Chris, and spot on! I remember when car phones were just 'toys for the rich', until the next generation of computer processors was fast enough to switch calls smoothly from one cell site to another with a minimum of call drops. Then cell phones disrupted the pay phone side, and now, the whole landline side. <br><br>IMHO, one of the next 'toys' could well be the next generation of Bluetooth, allowing a tighter integration of cell phone with automotive vehicle, passing those apps to the brains of the car. It will be interesting to see whether it comes from a new young upstart, Sirius/XM, or if the newly smaller Big Three are now rightsized enough to be innovative or are still too conservative to set up a skunk works of their own. Great read Chris, and spot on! I remember when car phones were just 'toys for the rich', until the next generation of computer processors was fast enough to switch calls smoothly from one cell site to another with a minimum of call drops. Then cell phones disrupted the pay phone side, and now, the whole landline side.

IMHO, one of the next 'toys' could well be the next generation of Bluetooth, allowing a tighter integration of cell phone with automotive vehicle, passing those apps to the brains of the car. It will be interesting to see whether it comes from a new young upstart, Sirius/XM, or if the newly smaller Big Three are now rightsized enough to be innovative or are still too conservative to set up a skunk works of their own.

]]> By: The Next Big Thing : clusterflock http://cdixon.org/2010/01/03/the-next-big-thing-will-start-out-looking-like-a-toy/comment-page-1/#comment-5776 The Next Big Thing : clusterflock Tue, 05 Jan 2010 17:50:30 +0000 http://cdixon.org/?p=2321#comment-5776 [...] Why it is often dismissed: The reason big new things sneak by incumbents is that the next big thing always starts out being dismissed as a “toy.” This is one of the main insights of Clay Christensen’s “disruptive technology” theory. This theory starts with the observation that technologies tend to get better at a faster rate than users’ needs increase. From this simple insight follows all kinds of interesting conclusions about how markets and products change over time. [...] [...] Why it is often dismissed: The reason big new things sneak by incumbents is that the next big thing always starts out being dismissed as a “toy.” This is one of the main insights of Clay Christensen’s “disruptive technology” theory. This theory starts with the observation that technologies tend to get better at a faster rate than users’ needs increase. From this simple insight follows all kinds of interesting conclusions about how markets and products change over time. [...]

]]> By: twoElectric http://cdixon.org/2010/01/03/the-next-big-thing-will-start-out-looking-like-a-toy/comment-page-1/#comment-5751 twoElectric Tue, 05 Jan 2010 15:17:24 +0000 http://cdixon.org/?p=2321#comment-5751 Good response. I suppose you mean: "The next big thing will start out looking like a trifle". But I still think it's a bit snarky. I think 99% of big things, big things that were not once big, started small and scrawny, ala the Ugly Duckling.<br><br>However, Erich said Twitter was great and also his company paid an undisclosed sum of money to Twitter recently for real-time search of Twitter feeds. On the other hand, 140 characters or less is not actually something innovative, it's really just another social network, and it's only the 3rd most popular one. If someone else makes a different social network with a slightly different take on the messaging protocol, when can we say that it has become the next big thing!!! Experts agree that Twitter is not serious enough for businesses (<a href="http://news.zdnet.com/2100-9595_22-334651.html" rel="nofollow">http://news.zdnet.com/2100-9595_22-334651.html</a>), though smiley faces :-P are kosher in some workplaces.<br><br>In my opinion it takes a bit more than lightheartedness to become the proverbial next big thing. Some companies tried to take SecondLife seriously, but it just isn't ready for prime time! <br><br>And my final remark for today is that robots are likely to become one of the next big things. Few people today have a Roomba robot vacuum cleaner, and many types of robots can be found in toystores rather than in a hardware store or department store (toy section excluded). Therefore, I'd argue that quite literally one of the next big things today looks like a toy (outside Japan, where robots are already big and untoylike) will be personal robots in the home for cleaning, cooking, aged care, child care, entertainment, etc. Good response. I suppose you mean: “The next big thing will start out looking like a trifle”. But I still think it's a bit snarky. I think 99% of big things, big things that were not once big, started small and scrawny, ala the Ugly Duckling.

However, Erich said Twitter was great and also his company paid an undisclosed sum of money to Twitter recently for real-time search of Twitter feeds. On the other hand, 140 characters or less is not actually something innovative, it's really just another social network, and it's only the 3rd most popular one. If someone else makes a different social network with a slightly different take on the messaging protocol, when can we say that it has become the next big thing!!! Experts agree that Twitter is not serious enough for businesses (http://news.zdnet.com/2100-9595_22-334651.html), though smiley faces :-P are kosher in some workplaces.

In my opinion it takes a bit more than lightheartedness to become the proverbial next big thing. Some companies tried to take SecondLife seriously, but it just isn't ready for prime time!

And my final remark for today is that robots are likely to become one of the next big things. Few people today have a Roomba robot vacuum cleaner, and many types of robots can be found in toystores rather than in a hardware store or department store (toy section excluded). Therefore, I'd argue that quite literally one of the next big things today looks like a toy (outside Japan, where robots are already big and untoylike) will be personal robots in the home for cleaning, cooking, aged care, child care, entertainment, etc.

]]> By: chris dixon http://cdixon.org/2010/01/03/the-next-big-thing-will-start-out-looking-like-a-toy/comment-page-1/#comment-5750 chris dixon Tue, 05 Jan 2010 14:00:20 +0000 http://cdixon.org/?p=2321#comment-5750 I am using "toy" to mean something dismissed by "serious" people at the time. The way Erich Schmidt dismissed Twitter as a "poor man's email." Not necessarily something fun. I am using “toy” to mean something dismissed by “serious” people at the time. The way Erich Schmidt dismissed Twitter as a “poor man's email.” Not necessarily something fun.

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