The decline of the mobile web

People are spending more time on mobile vs desktop:

comscore-mobile-users-desktop-users-2014

And more of their mobile time using apps, not the web:

apps_dominate_hires-resized-600

This is a worrisome trend for the web. Mobile is the future. What wins mobile, wins the Internet. Right now, apps are winning and the web is losing.

Moreover, there are signs that it will only get worse. Ask any web company and they will tell you that they value app users more than web users. This is why you see so many popups and banners on mobile websites that try to get you to download apps. It is also why so many mobile websites are broken. Resources are going to app development over web development. As the mobile web UX further deteriorates, the momentum toward apps will only increase.

The likely end state is the web becomes a niche product used for things like 1) trying a service before you download the app, 2) consuming long tail content (e.g. link to a niche blog from Twitter or Facebook feed).

This will hurt long-term innovation for a number of reasons:

1) Apps have a rich-get-richer dynamic that favors the status quo over new innovations. Popular apps get home screen placement, get used more, get ranked higher in app stores, make more money, can pay more for distribution, etc. The end state will probably be like cable TV – a few dominant channels/apps that sit on users’ home screens and everything else relegated to lower tiers or irrelevance.

2) Apps are heavily controlled by the dominant app stores owners, Apple and Google. Google and Apple control what apps are allowed to exist, how apps are built, what apps get promoted, and charge a 30% tax on revenues.

Most worrisome: they reject entire classes of apps without stated reasons or allowing for recourse (e.g. Apple has rejected all apps related to Bitcoin). The open architecture of the web led to an incredible era of experimentation. Many startups were controversial when they were first founded.  What if AOL or some other central gatekeeper had controlled the web, and developers had to ask permission to create Google, Youtube, eBay, Paypal, Wikipedia, Twitter, Facebook, etc. Sadly, this is where we’re headed on mobile.

172 thoughts on “The decline of the mobile web

  1. zachweinberg says:

    Reminds me of how the internet evolved on the desktop. Seems temporary.

    Fully integrated won first (i.e. AOL) which ultimately got replaced by open web (Browser) as the web caught up in terms of technology (just as fast, easier to browse, find content etc.). Same will happen on mobile. Fully integrated / native apps will win first until the mobile browser technology catches up to be just as fast and fully featured as the native apps.

  2. I think the Flurry stats are exaggerated since so many web views are within the embedded browsers from Facebook and Twitter. These are likely considered apps, when they’re really web with a different form of navigation.

  3. “rs. This is why you see so many popups and banners on mobile websites
    that try to get you to download apps. It is also why so many mobile
    websites are broken.”

    Huh, is that surprising? They break their mobile sites and expect people to still use them more than apps? This is self fulfulling: if you make a sucky website, people will NOT use it. Make a wonderful mobile site and people will not care about your apps.

  4. Gennady Simanovsky says:

    apps as a dedicated tool solve you problems better than generic browser. The problem that you have >1,000,000 in your tool box -hard to navigate efficiently. Next 2 steps to my mind: – a. mobile browser for apps b. unlocking potential of collective wisdom of people that connected 24/7 and integrate people knowledge & intuition with apps.

  5. I wonder what percentage of “the mobile web” is truly built and designed for “the mobile web.” Until discovery becomes more frictionless, along with more derivative value, don’t expect these numbers to change. Apps are working because discovery is easier, people are reluctant to explore – and typically, they’re simpler to use.

  6. Share the concern but not sure if the data is skewed by mobile gaming (and mobile gaming is more gaming appliance replacement than it is web replacement)?

  7. Mɐx Bulger says:

    Definitely agree we’re wasting valuable time and engineering effort designing around the artificial constraints of Apple and Google’s sandboxes. The result is bad for innovation, and its bad for users. It’s possible it was necessary to tightly control the transition to mobile at first, but the world is very ready for a more open ecosystem. https://medium.com/p/5abad0efa8

  8. crueber says:

    The sky is falling, the sky is falling! ..oh, wait, this is just the second iteration of the switch from server back to client. This happened with thin clients, it’s happened with the web. We’ll see how long it takes for people to come back to realizing all the advantages of a single centralized application platform that is always up to date.

  9. Harry Moreno says:

    problem is apple/google are in a position to severely hinder/cripple the browser. I believe (correct me if I’m wrong) apple has already crippled js speeds in the browser. Forcing entire categories of apps to go native.

  10. Another factor not discussed is the feedback loop of dominant platforms on engineering teams building products. Even if smaller teams want to deploy everywhere, they need to pick their targets. They will go where the dominant audience is. This is actually *why* mobile web experiences can be so much worse than desktop web or native apps. People choose the latter for their focus because the payoff is greater.

    Then mobile web has a worse consumer experience, worse engagement, and then matters less as a platform. Rinse, repeat…

  11. Jason Novack says:

    Yes, Apple/Google have deeper integration (AOL never made your OS or your computer), which will delay the process, but I still agree with @zachweinberg:disqus and think open alternatives are still inevitable.

  12. This conclusion is demonstrably false. For apps to “win” you’d have to replace every website in existence with an App. The explosion of Apps is already burdening down the walled garden app-stores where you can’t find anything worth downloading. If you propose a future where everybody instead of publishing a website, publishes an App, this basically would basically kill mobiles entirely. You can go straight back to dumbphones that can’t do anything after “apps have won”.

  13. Andi Plantenberg says:

    It’s a very good point. The primary issue being the freedom and fairness of availability. Net neutrality for apps.

  14. ftrain says:

    The web is a less consistent software delivery platform compared to the Android/iOS universes, and pretty painful when it comes to software dev. It remains great for linking/transmitting objects across a network, though. So while the document web grew on top of the lovely simplicity of @hrefs, web or mobile apps in general don’t have consistent data types and their link semantics are an unholy mess. The joy of connecting one thing to another has been replaced by the different joys of creating and managing lots of state to deliver experiences. So one alternative reading of “apps are winning” is that there’s a ton of opportunity to work out how to link applications meaningfully–one example would be a one-click transfer of a spreadsheet to a visualization/graphing engine, maybe using web intents, not APIs. If this generated really fast-moving efficient ways to get work done, or truly entertaining new kinds of media experiences, people would migrate out of the walled-gardens.

  15. Michael says:

    so here I am to correct you. The speed is not crippled. It’s top notch in Safari, but so called web views, started from apps, are not able to use the full power of the processor like Safari does and therefore it takes longer to load sites.

    Something which is not mentioned here is that JS needs a large amount of resources and we are far away from native app speed on mobile devices due to barriers in CPU speed, amount of RAM, and battery constraints.

  16. Tattva5 says:

    The only difference in your worry about Google/Apple stores is that Android can install applications from any app store, not just Google Play.

  17. Yiannis Volos says:

    I think it’s wrong to look at it with percentages. What is the value the percentage corresponds to? If people are spending more time on mobile devices than they would spend on desktops, it’s obvious they will spend it at more things other than just browsing the web.

  18. People waste collective centuries in Flappy Crush ergo the web is the new Gopher. I don’t think so.

    Time and again we’ve seen that when massive gated marketplaces/platforms exert too much chocking pressure, innovation flows back to more open platforms. Centralized gatekeepers end up failing because of their very success. It’s VB client/server on Windows one day, then it’s Flash/IE, then it’s Zinga on FB, then it’s iOS apps… yet somehow all along the whole Github/JS/StackOverflow cheap/easy/open universe continues to morph and expand. Iphone dominated 2 years ago, now people are moving time spent to 7″ Android tablets, it will be something else tomorrow. But they all have a web browser.

  19. Hi Chris

    I think this has been inevitable for a couple of years now. The simplicity of apps from a user PoV beats the openness of the web from a developer PoV. I think http as a transport and the app ecosystem as a consumer will give rise to a new “services” layer that creates value for developers. In that sense “infrastructure as a service” will allow the web to live and thrive on mobile, just not as a client delivery mechanism.

    As for the impact on innovation – I’m not as pessimistic as you. There is a lot we can do – with or without the gatekeepers.

  20. Adam Conrad says:

    Completely agree. The internet was slow and couldn’t support full desktop-like apps for a while, and then that was solved. Now how many apps do you run on your laptop vs through a web interface?

    We are experiencing the same problem with mobile. Once mobile networks are as fast as desktop (by today’s standards) and the devices can support more parallel downloads, the mobile web will rise again and you won’t require as many mobile-downloaded apps. The past repeats itself.

  21. The cyclicality of “openness” is important.

    It’s worth noting that it’s actually — almost always — open first. Open systems/communities explore new frontiers, closed providers package them for the mainstream, and then new open solutions emerge (often a function of both end-user comfort with the ecosystem and the relentless ability of closed companies/solutions to build defensive silos that eventually hamstring their ability to innovate).

  22. There are two things about the Flurry time share data that are crucial to understand before painting an accurate picture.

    1) What is the actual time spent on mobile web and mobile apps, not just share of time?

    If actual time spent is rising overall — which I assume is true — then the mobile web may still be growing significantly even if the share of time compared to apps is shrinking. People are consuming video (Netflix, Youtube) and playing games (Angry Birds, Candy Crush etc.) at astounding rates, and that will sway the share of time metric toward apps, even if most of the “traditional” web browsing continues to happen in a mobile browser.

    2) Is the time spent using an in-app browser considered to be an app or web?

    Facebook (and Twitter) are a huge presence in mobile app usage, but both send a lot of mobile traffic to shared links. Large companies (Buzzfeed, Upworthy etc.) have been built primarily off of Facebook traffic, and these sites are squarely mobile web but likely show up in this data as time spent in an app.

    I don’t disagree with the concern toward closed models, but I don’t think the data presented can accurately gauge how much of a concern this is at the moment.

  23. Sean says:

    While I agree with the general sentiment, I don’t think that it is as simple as “the web is open, apps are not”. It is true that Apple and Google exert editorial control over the apps available on their stores, but on the web Google and Facebook control the vast majority of the traffic. Changes to the Google search algorithm or the Facebook newsfeed can cause entire categories of sites to virtually disappear. Yes, you can still host your website but if no one finds it what is the difference?

    The reality is that the internet has been calcifying over the past 5 years with more and more control held by fewer and fewer companies. Just like with the telephone and railroads, new technologies can boom and grow but when they start to mature you see consolidation at the top. We need a new wave of innovation or other changes to prevent both the web and apps from losing their freedom.

  24. Azn A says:

    For the old Web stay to relevant, a lot of proprietary systems need access to each other’s APIs and a new coherence language, and history has shown large technology companies tend to protect their own patch. So the Web will evolve from From WWW, the uncharted World Wide Web, to GGG, the charted Giant Global Graph with a new player in control of it all :) This will be a new Web separable from the previous Web layer (Web 2.0) that is computable by machines. This Web will have its own way to define and handle terms, concepts, relations, axioms and rules–the structural components of an ontology. In other word, It will bridge the gap between programming and semantic relations. This Web will give rise to mobile software agents (virtual assistants) that can perform tasks, or services for an individual based on user input, location awareness, and the ability to access information from a variety of online sources (such as weather or traffic conditions, news, stock prices, user schedules, retail prices, etc) and to perform ongoing tasks such as schedule management (e.g., sending an alert to a dinner date that a user is running late due to traffic conditions, update schedules for both parties, and change the restaurant reservation time) and personal health management (e.g., monitoring caloric intake, heart rate and exercise regimen, then making recommendations for healthy choices).

    If you’ve ever looked at the Google ads that pop up specifically for you, or had a try of Google Now, you will realize that the predictive powers of AI based on computational statistics are extremely limited. They might be able to pick vaguely the topics/products that are very loosely related to you, but they are completely unable to pick topics/products that are both related to you and of interest to you RIGHT NOW. So instead of getting served ads for random stuff you don’t want, you get served ads for slightly less random stuff you don’t want.

    Google, mobile apps, web sites, etc will largely disintegrate into the lesser Web as this new Web make everything more coherent and usability goes way up.

    The new Web will be mobile first and consist of maybe 35 Web platforms (as the new Web will be one giant database covering local knowledge to science. You’ll have network awareness which amounts to an engine for processing streams of information, classifying them, learning to spot differences, and using time-based patterns to make predictions about the future. This is the future of advertising. For example, the system may alert the user that there is a high risk of pollen exposure on their children’s way to school or alert one of a traffic jam on their regular commute. Much like a stock ticker or a scrolling update, this approach enables proactive information services where the users can be notified of relevant information without the need to be active information seekers.

    Today’s Web information is siloed by applications, programs and sites made to automate and monetize specific tasks. Your calendar is an application programmed to schedule meetings. Your work documents use a different application. Your playlist is somewhere else. Soccer team schedules are somewhere else. Then there are the shopping, airline, hotel, community service and multitudes of additional sites, all isolated from one another.

    By publishing content to STP Repositories, we remove the silos to create vast storehouses of structured, machine-readable information. These platforms replace or supplement text-based documents with concepts-based data, enabling machines to process knowledge, similar to human reasoning, obtaining more meaningful results. Devices then communicate with one another to perform tasks that currently require multiple searches and force the user to integrate all search results to perform the task.

  25. Ah, where’s Disqus? On the one hand, consumers are voting with their wallets and fingertips. On the other hand, i’m sure developers are frustrated with little place to go. I wonder if something like Wildcard out of NYC or Steve Newcomb’s Famo.us could create a new platform for publishers to get access to the phone’s GPU, yet it’s likely the platform would be restricted from accessing certain hardware elements or be dragged down in other nonperformant ways. Finally, while I do think the “new mobile incumbents” will have staying power to feed their engine, it’s also possible many apps slowly die from dwindling engagement, as up and coming generations may view apps as more disposable than lasting pieces of software.

  26. The rise of apps versus web is simply an indication that most people are mobile today. And right now apps provide a better mobile experience than web. This is a function of today’s communications infrastructure (bandwidth limits), handheld compute capabilities (slowed down for battery life), and graphic displays (limited sizes). As the limits are slowly removed, so will the apps slowly give way to web again.

  27. In the late 90s, when Microsoft was going through its anti-trust phase, I wonder how many people would have been okay with a “Windows App Store”. Fast forward a decade, and no one seems to care about Google and Apple’s walled gardens. If Apple decides to enforce its App Store for installing apps on the Mac one day, I wonder if any argument we use against them would stand. We’ve now accepted this precedence on mobile, so we’re hardly allowed to reject their motives on the desktop.

    It would be hard to argue that the Web has enabled anything but free speech. App stores have done the opposite, and no one cares because the developers get paid.

  28. While I agree on the current state of apps, most do use the web regardless of not running in a browser. It’s just a matter of vendors allowing more freedom in their app stores, but at the same time they need to remain vigilant about security and permissions. Having said that, if you see what permissions a simple text editor is asking for in the Play store, it’s pretty scary.

    Maybe what is needed is really simple though. The best strategy in my opinion is finding ways for mobile browsers to interact more directly with the operating system so a mobile web app will not have to depend so much in remote serves but use the local system’s resources. This would revolutionize things as you wouldn’t need to install a kajillion apps, rather you’d have a kajillion bookmarks.

    Current problem is that mobile web apps are pretty memory intensive. Just try to use Twitter from the Android Chrome browser and compare its performance with the app which can take advantage of the system’s resources directly rather than through the resources allocated to the browser.

  29. Jeroen says:

    Now the kerfuffle around Eich has died down, we can hope that Mozilla can safe the open web with FireFox OS. I fear they are too late, though.

  30. Albin says:

    Increasingly, locally installed apps on my phone are a bloody nuisance, updating all the time, and many of them require internet to work. Increasingly I prefer using an in-browser app for those things, let the updates and new versions be installed and implemented in the cloud with my settings registered up there. Google in particular has been brilliant with development of web apps that work as well or better than many locally installed ones.

    But the traditional browser (evolved from and still pretty much still resembling the PC desktop software) is not an appropriate tool for conveniently accessing web apps. I don’t think we’ve seen the web browser for mobile devices that truly optimizes web apps and sets and launches local icons for immediate access. “Speed dials” (or the clunky-named “New Tabs” page in Chrome) are not good enough.

  31. Anonymous says:

    It’s interesting when people compare today’s mobile use to how desktop browser use evolved over the years. Those folks just don’t get it. Use cases for mobile vs desktop are wildly different. Even when we have 8 cores and 12 Gig of memory on a phone, the way it’s used will never be the same as a desktop. The browser may have won on desktops, but that doesn’t seem to be happening on mobile, and I for one applause it. Just because an app can be be developed as a browser app doesn’t mean it should be. Long live native app development.

  32. @Julien whats a good example of an awesome mobile website that makes people not want to use the app? I couldn’t imagine mobile.twitter done better, but it’s nowhere close to the app.

  33. nicolas says:

    The apps is a great tool since the developper can control effectively user experience (few OS variation, easy to get feedback about bugs and user opinions through stores…) whereas the multiplicity of browsers is a challenge. Moreover the user is notified when there is an upgrade whic improve user retention.
    Finaly apps was back because loading time and plugins compatibility is damaging user experience. Anyway we are just waiting for the next great thing to move away from apps again…soon is unlikely!

  34. mundiff says:

    So how much of this mobile traffic is Twitter and Facebook/Instagram and streaming music, even the gMail and Youtube apps? If I had to guess these are the majority of the mobile traffic that occurs on APPS.

    So Twitter has IMO a news aspect to it, but it’s also just dicking around and posting pics of your food and selfies. IMO that’s what facebook and instagram are, just dicking around, time sucking activities, mindless scrolling.

    Mobile App traffic is up because its available when you’re on the go and most of these Apps come pre-installed on your phone. Makes sense.

    But I think more and more people are going to rebel against the privacy invasion that is Apps; the App reading your identity, reading your phonebook, the app knowing your location and relaying it back to company servers. Or maybe people are dumber than i give them credit for.

    Also, as a developer, it’s much easier to write a responsive website once than to deal with 2-3+ different apps for the same content and be boxed in my Google Play and Apple App store.

    The developers and the people that pay the developers will make the decisions on where the mobile traffic will go, Apps vs Browser/Websites. The majority will find its easier to do a responsive website and in some cases it will be advantageous to do the Apps, especially for gaming.

    Of course that’s just my opinion. It will be a sad day if I need to download an app for each website I visit. I’ll probably just give up the internet entirely at that point and just start actually talking to people, maybe go live in the woods with no wifi and talk about the good all days when the internet was open and useable.

  35. This is an analysis of where we are today. Chris, your missing the point entirely.. Mobile Web is in its infancy! Do you think developers want to create mobile apps? No, the user experience is significantly better.. Why aren’t you writing about the key things the mobile web experience needs to reduce the need for apps. This is a ridiculous analysis.

  36. I haven’t seen any mention of the networks that carry all this information. I use apps because most of them work without a fast connection. If I didn’t have to wait for a page to load ten times longer than a native app takes to run, maybe I would consider using the web as an alternative.

    After that is out of the way, then we can talk about the frequency of poor experiences using web apps vs. native ones. I’d love to use Google Keep on a mobile browser, but have you tried that? I’ll stick to the Android/Desktop apps for now.

  37. Grumpy Curmudgeon says:

    I once thought web apps would be the solution for most development, but now I say good riddance to web apps. The web is excellent for consuming and publishing content, but web apps are just generally weak. If you want an educational experience just run a debugging proxy while you run a web app. Megs of javascript and tons of secret API calls to mysterious servers passing info about your web session to who knows what. Strange code that runs constantly, sucking up cpu cycles with no apparent effect, are they trying to mine bitcoins? Every time I have a saturated cpu and my machine slows down all I need to do is kill the browser, it doesn’t matter which one, and things improve. Running web apps is like running a new PC from the Win95 era, full of bloat and bad user experiences and monetizing crap that you can barely get past to be productive.

    And the server side is no better. For illustration, look up the work the WhatsApp guys did to get their servers handling millions of connections each with only a few dozen engineers for a half billion users! Then look at the crappy Rails code most web apps still seem to use that do dozens? or maybe hundreds? of connections each, if that. Ruby is still single threaded? For servers? What? I won’t even take jobs anymore that use the word Rails, as it usually means wonky servers that can’t handle loading. This is all a step backwards, quickly put together stuff that ignores good engineering practice since it was done using “agile processes and unit tests” and that solves that!

    Mobile is going to continue going native at least until we get something like a 10x battery improvement or better. There’s no magic sauce that will get web apps past the laws of physics and mobile devices are constrained by batteries. Native apps can use the local APIs and efficient libraries. Mobile gets saddled with random javascript and has to work through a restricted interface to the system. Years have passed with constant claims that javascript would get good enough, but it never does. Again, batteries. Native code is nicer to batteries and paying customers like the experience. So, I say, good riddance.

  38. Mobile web is here to stay. The thing is, people spend less time consuming web content on mobile than they do on desktop. As one of the original founders of the w3c Mobile Web Initiative I was an early advocate of mobile web. Apps are growing exponentially unlike mobile web access but this doesn’t mean mobile web is on the decline. Furthermore, most apps have a WebView to display web content – these stats don’t take that into consideration. Lastly, some apps are built entirely on UIWebView so the numbers are skewed further due to the fact that this particular trend is on the rise.

  39. I suspect that the mobile web slowdown versus native apps is a result of the growth of Responsive Web Design. Don’t get me wrong. I’m a big RWD guy, but worry that supporting browsing experiences on multiple devices and screen sizes may come at a cost of developing experiences tailored for a certain OS and general screen size (a luxury you have when developing a dedicated app).

  40. N says:

    Ironically, Safari’s Reader function makes almost any website no matter how poorly coded beautiful to read (I used it for this article). If Apple ever deprecates Reader then maybe it’s time to worry. Why doesn’t Chrome have this function? Oh yeah. It hides all non-native advertisements.

  41. I wouldn’t mind about an apps only world so much if it wasn’t that Apple and Google are the gatekeepers. If anybody could download and install anything on their mobile device just like on PCs then it would remain relatively open.

    I really don’t like this of Apple and Google.

    The solution is a new generation of mobile devices with an open operating system that allows open downloads instead of play or app stores.

  42. Decline of the open web is an interesting question. What is the open web anyway? Half the time is spent on facebook. Most of the discovery takes place via google.

    If you are not ranked on google or you don’t have social presence it’s very hard to be a web player. The acquisition bar is getting higher every day.

    The same fundamental is evident on mobile apps. Handful of games have cemented the top list, and driven the acquisition cost out of reach of most startups.

    As any market it moves towards maximization of revenue until something comes in and disrupt it. I don’t believe the iPhone and android oligopoly will last very long. Web will win in the end.

  43. Mac says:

    What about the net revenue, where is it coming from or the financial transactions…..most common is free app usage…..need some more info on this…..zachweinberg is right……in the long run it would be mobile websites…….

  44. Chris – great post and thoughts. Apple and Google have a considerable and growing power since they control the app stores. What are your thoughts on the power of handset manufacturers such as Samsung, Xiaomi et al – they are producing millions of devices a year and can also decide what apps will show up on the user’s home screen on day 1?

  45. Anonymous says:

    So the. Why such the hoo haa about HTML 5 and the decline of flash? If everything is an app does it matter?

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  47. Good post and even better comment thread. A follow-up synthesis would be great. Additional thoughts (if not already stated):

    1) mobile has latency, screen/ux, device performance, and end-user context issues. until these issues are narrow, the score will remain Apps vs web, 8-1.

    2) mobile performance held hostage by fiber and last mile broadband. the law of wireless gravity drives everything

    3) app neutrality is a subset of net neutrality which is a subset of layer 2 access/interconnect; this makes the comcast/netflix and FCC issues germane even to this discussion

    3) while OS’s can be silos, there are opportunities for groups to band together to break out of these silos (microsoft and amazon should be leading this charge; other players could be the IoT/IoE groups) and (re)generate appneutrality

    3a) its not just consumer, but enterprise apps and centralized processing and knowledge I/O

    4) winners will be those that can bridge the multi-screen and contextual environments (enterprise and consumer)

    5) new settlements (inter app and inter network) systems will evolve since IP has no inherent price signaling, and people will resist the loss of privacy as a quid pro quo for free access. there will be other ways for the core to subsidize transport and access and improve and make more competitive last mile economics

  48. Anonymous says:

    Apple. Google. “Walled gardens”. Don’t you see, people? It’s the Smoking Man.

    Or, it’s just innovation on the web, but different than what you’re prepared for, or what you predicted would happen.

    Apps vs. Web? Why does everything have to be X vs. Y? Sometimes, things aren’t so black and white, and in trying to force it to be so, you misinterpret what’s going on.

  49. I believe that the mobile browser topic (and how it might be disadvantageous to native apps) is important but not the only problem.

    What’s missing is a user-centric approach for surfing, sharing and transacting on the web. A decentralized tool, that stores money, personal data and access rights to digital goods. A companion tool that is controlled by the user, and which travels with him/her across the web. Think “Amazon-convenience” for everywhere.

    This paradigm shift (moving away from the account based approach) would add a new category to all these walled gardens and would reinstate the speed of innovation we are all working for as entrepreneurs.

  50. The reason apps are replacing Web is obviously very logical. They offer better experience, tighter integration with devices and work great, also, the monetization is off the charts. They also have tight communication with the products or a service consumers and this is supremely valuable, something that web really doesn’t have in the same way.

    The problem are not apps. Web is dying because it’s a dinosaur that lagged in innovation for 2 decades and it won’t get much better.. it will take another 2 decades to catch up to the capabilities of apps and mobile we have today, not to mention the monetization. Tons of browsers, tons of incompatibilities, constant lack of standards implementation and specific features and this will NEVER change because every company that makes a browser has their own politics and monopoly in mind (just like with app stores).

    People need to stop fearing change. Yes, being locked into 2 app ecosystem is bad now, but disruption is coming.. considering that Android will be 90% of the mobile/tablet/home/wearables (anyone who thinks otherwise is naive), what will happen in the second wave of app ecosystem is that we will see open 3rd party app stores that will compete with Google and everyone else.

    We are already seeing that Amazon, Samsung and others are building their own Android stores and eventually people will have choices. Not so much from Apple’s side but unless Apple opens up in this new world, they will eventually be extinct.

    So lighten, there’s PLENTY of space for innovation and future with the app ecosystem. 99% of it is still based on internet/web services.

  51. Chris nailed the macro trend towards mobile apps. Visit my site and I get some server log data, download my app and I know your name and I can ping you.

    The next front is the “streaming box” wars – google, apple, amazon, ms, comcast. Lots of choices as long as you want what they have.

  52. Michael Cohen says:

    Many opinions reflected in this blog are reasonable. Yet, the fundamental question is ” does the current trend toward mobile apps reduce the innovative process” I will contend that the argument is flawed because innovation does not relegate itself to a particular medium (i.e. The Web). The notion of innovation is antecedent on the desire to create a better model (not necessarily within the same medium). A better model may be in a form of a different medium or another application of the current medium. For example, Mr. Clarke has mentioned the “streaming box”. The “streaming box” innovation utilizes the backbone of the web to provide an alternative to the current TV model. Thus, the “streaming box” changes our traditional medium (TV) with a new model that in my humble opinion will likely change the media and the medium in which content is delivered to our living rooms.
    Fundamentally, innovation will continue unrestricted as long as an open, unregulated (within reason), environment is fostered and promulgated.

    If you are interested to in discussing this and other topics you can follow me at Twitter @passion4logic or LAT4 on Facebook

  53. It’s a matter of time. apps will decline and dev/interest will shift back to the web. One of the reasons webkit is the only browser engine in iOS is because Apple knows that the web is the platform to beat and they want to stifle that as long as possible. browser/web is a bad ass combo.

  54. These are self-fulfilling profecies. Publishing an article like this makes people think they really must create an app if they want to stay ahead, because well… everybody says they should.

    Then when all companies have apps, and users are fed up having to install apps for everything, someone will post an article about how much better webpages are, and we’ll see a large migration back to websites.

    It would be really cool if there was some sort of generic app that you could send a set of instructions to present information the way you want it to… some sort of…. browser… yes, and then design a generic language for it, to mark up the content… some sort of hyper test markup language…

  55. Dixon is right.

    There is one way out and that is to say no to using their marketplaces every time there are reasonable alternatives available. This is not the first time in history this kind of thing has happened and that facts of the matter is the corporate cockroaches need us more than we need them. The only thing allowing them to continue to control us is us.

  56. I work for a company specialized in web technology and I think the web will be catching up with more and more browsers supporting HTML5. There are quite a lot of nice things you can do with it by now making it less necessary to actually program things for different plattforms. With embedded chrome and phone gap you can actually create applications for desktops and mobile phones from a single source of code based on HTML and Javascript. So, no, I think the web is very well off. Rather I think the pendulum from client to server will swing back again as it has done quite often in the history of computer science. If you are interested in a web-based app, have a look at one of our case studies: http://rasenball.com/mobile.html

  57. I think what’s most troubling is that mobile OS makers aren’t really driving performance or features in the mobile browser because the fewer sites that need to make apps in order to have the same functionality as their desktop application, the more money they stand to make through a) app sales and b) ad implementations where they also get a cut.

    As a result, you get hamstrung experiences where, until very recently, it was impossible to upload an image in the browser (REALLY???). Also, performance for scripts is demonstrably slower compared to their compiled app brethren, despite it running comparably on a desktop.

    On one hand, you can say that you’re effectively developing a second application regardless, because the screen real estate is so different that your navigation has to change to accommodate giant buttons (relative to the resolution of your screen), but the level of code re-usability is much lower when you can’t leverage all of the non-UI element code that happens in the client.

    I think we, as developers, need to demand a better browser from mobile manufacturers.

  58. CheersfromVivien says:

    App and mobile health is the trend, but web is not going away tough.
    We are fundraising for our mHealth app.

  59. Nothing is for certain in today’s world. If businesses like GM, Lehman Brothers and others can collapse so can Apple and Google one day … what happens to native apps then? I am hanging my hat on open web standards! Wasn’t Apple close to bankruptcy without Jobs in 1996.

  60. Shane says:

    Apples and oranges. It would be completely ridiculous for developers to end up having to create 5 different native apps for 5 different devices every time they wanted to make a website or resource. This isn’t going to happen.

  61. toddpressley1 says:

    This article truly blows, having more unsubstantiated claims than esurance and more slippery slopes than Winterplace in april. Where are your sources? Your only link is tumbler. Is this a joke?

  62. I disagree totally, nobody wants to install 1000 apps for 1000 websites
    It will take another form but apps for website are working only for big websites like ebay facebook or amazon
    the problem comes from the browsers and the way of coding a website

  63. “…and the web is losing” What is the web losing?…The Internet?! No one owns the Internet, you can’t “win” it or “lose” it. Apps are just another form of technology.

    This whole thing about “apps are killing websites” falls in the same bucket of useless discussions like “consoles are killing PCs”. Websites will remain as part of the online ecosystem just like PCs will remain part of the gaming ecosystem.

    Wow.

  64. Benny Liputra says:

    Well, still i don’t think people will keep downloading updates of a mobile app just only for the sake of viewing company’s profile and other information. A strict competition for mobile apps and mobile web apps? Perhaps. But is it threatening the mobile websites as a whole? Not really.

  65. Bold'un says:

    Maybe the problem with mobile web is that it is such a fiddle to type in addresses on a mobile and especially secure passwords (issue made worse now that hearbleed tells us to change’em all).

  66. Josh White says:

    I’m not willing to buy quite yet that anything is really in danger. All we’re seeing right now is a readjustment in people’s consuming habits. These are people that were using desktops infrequently but now just have better access on their phones. At some point we’re going to see the trend bottom out when all of these pure consumption users are pretty much all moved over.

    One thing to note is that we’re considering iPad Mini / Kindle Fire devices as “mobile”, which is a really big stretch. Most people that use one of these devices have the same habits/behaviors that a desktop user has on most websites. Also, we’re seeing the advent of apps on desktop that weren’t possible before.

    We can’t really know what’s to come. Assuming everything stays the same (which it won’t) and behavior remains static (which it won’t) we’re saying x, y or z outcome is on the way.

  67. Desktops are primarily used for work. Mobile apps are primarily used for checking delivered content, or delivering content.

    As far as the web is concerned, it has always been about search. The web is the web. It will remain what it should be regardless of what platform it is on. It is designed for browsing, and finding information without constraints.

    Companies shifting to native app creation realize the value of establishing boundaries for the user. That’s why apps are more successful for specific functions – whether checking the weather, updating a status, or reading news. It’s tailored content. That’s not the web.

    The web for mobile will never die – because no company will ever be able to determine what a user wants to consume for every minute of the day. Mobile is about consumption. Web is search. Desktop is work. Of course there will always be some overlap, but I’m not concerned about the decline of anything.

  68. lcacm says:

    A native App is a special purpose tool that is specialized for a specific task and performs far better compared to a general purpose browser. A browser excels at downloading volatile data that changes rapidly and requires frequent updating. For most other tasks that users perform a native App is far more responsive since an App is free to use the entire hardware resources of the device. A browser on the other hand is given limited access to hardware resources. Also, since the browser API is well documented, hackers find it easier to coordinate an attack.

  69. Mike Pearce says:

    Hyperbole: you make broad claims without citing any sources, or providing any statistics except two graphs:

    “Ask any web company and they will tell you that they value app users more than web users.”
    – Not true. I wouldn’t even suggest it was “many”, maybe a few.

    “This is why you see so many popups and banners on mobile websites that try to get you to download apps.”
    – Again, not true, I see it on a few “big names” but the web is a plentiful place, there are many mobile websites that don’t offer this.

    “It is also why so many mobile websites are broken. Resources are going to app development over web development.”
    – “so many” – how many? All of them, half of them? Did you look at them all? Half of them? Or just the ones that spurned this article?

    I’m not denying that way you’re saying has some truth, I don’t honestly know either way. If I was to use my own, limited, experience, I would disagree.

    Did you consider apps like Facebook? Which are just the website, in a native wrapper?

  70. Well said Chris, I also find this concerning.

    The technologies that make all this possible are so new that our societies have little grasp on the issues involved. Privacy and data-ownership issues are virtually unregulated with companies claiming ownership of any data you provide them, willingly or not.

    Native apps increase this problem by making it more opaque, more proprietary, more of a walled garden…but hey, they’re sure convenient.

    A major problem facing mobile web is performance.

    We can take steps to improve the open web by advocating for (or insisting on) best practices relating to performance.

    There are simple things like enabling gzip, setting long expires headers, enabling keep-alive and compressing images that are irresponsible not to utilize.

  71. I’m not really convinced by the stats as far as indicating a trend that looks bad for the mobile web.

    A simple observation with app usage is this: people typically only use a handful of apps. There’s a very finite amount of apps users will be willing to use on a meaningful basis (I use less than 10 myself). The use case just doesn’t compare to the web either. For a very engaging website, an app can outperform any web presence most of the time. But most online stuff doesn’t require a dedicated app. There’s no stat that says people are jumping for joy to install hundreds of apps.

    @Adam Powell, I don’t see how privacy and data owner-ship is made worse by apps perse as opposed to web apps/mobile sites that definitely store your data in the cloud. At least with a native app you can in principle keep your data on your devices. What I do find interesting is the rise of self-hosted/decentralized app and webapp experiences. Still very early days for that but there is no inherent necessity to have personal data “owned” or managed by centralizing parties, whether that is for native apps, web apps or mobile sites.

  72. Well, i think mobile app and mobile website both are very important, you can not rely only one (if speak general), it is highly dependent on your product, sometime the mobile app shows effective results and some time the mobile web dominate. So, we will have to be careful while doing this. Further more there is a complete new era coming for us, which would be mobile optimization. I saw a couple of brands, revamping their mobile website as “mobile-first” design and promoting their apps. So, mobile app or website, choose wisely, but keep both. I want to say that you should only focus on one of them at a time and monitor the result and change your strategy accordingly.

  73. Chris, this is just a problem of user experience. People prefer so-called “Apps”, because the user experience of “Apps” is way better, because it’s responsive, fluid, thought through for a specific mobile device with touch. The technology used inside is irrelevant to users. Discovery in proprietary app stores doesn’t work, companies have to market their apps through the web, only to re-direct people to a download. Big friction, big drop in conversion. They could provide an “App” experience to their audience, right there, with web technologies. We’ve showed it to you!

  74. I don’t think that there will be any decline of the mobile website development industry. In fact, it is rising with the rising concept of enterprise mobility. You will find many companies which provide enterprise mobility solutions to their clients to make sure their mobile websites run well all the time.

  75. I am very concerned that people will read this article and conclude that they should focus on app development instead of a mobile web site. I have heard directly from retailers who have created a great mobile web site and a great iOS app and a great Android app and their experience has been that 80% of their traffic still comes through the mobile web site. So at least for eCommerce, the initial focus should be on establishing a strong mobile web site. The analysis in this article is not anything you should be basing investment decision upon. It needs to drill down into what the user is doing. You should not be basing your eCommerce investment decisions on data that doesn’t exclude time spent playing games, browsing facebook and watching movies.

  76. The points you bring up are more related to discoverability and IMO a mobile web browsing experience that we have trouble separating from the desktop’s iteration of a site.

    I went to a site yesterday via FB mobile native app, and there was a header ad, footer ad, and a collapsible banner that I had to close before I could look at the entire screen to read the content I wanted to read. This was a large publication’s mobile site and it sucked.

    As a developer, I think it doesn’t matter if you use IOS/Android SDK or HTML/JS/CSS with your mobile product because the technology behind getting all that data to and fro is still HTTP. Try using anything requiring a connection to the internet while underground on a NYC train sometime. The app is just as useless as the mobile website in that regard.

    The advantage to being in the top 20 in the app store seems to be on par with being #1 on google search results.

    So all in all, its a matter of native performance vs trying to replicate native performance on a mobile device without crippling the experience by insisting that it follow the same monetization model as a desktop site. IMO, native app performance would win mostly because we are bringing the same techniques for developing desktop sites to mobile.

  77. davidbarnesdesign761 says:

    Well, this is a bit depressing considering I’ve just spent the last 3 yrs. focused solely on web development and I suppose everyone has already seen this shift in mobile apps. I’ve heard rumors that the web development community has become overly saturated and it may be because less web development work is out there due to an influx of app development. Either way, the internet will always need people to make it pretty and I don’t see the need for web developers diminishing anytime soon…fingers crossed…maybe I should start to learn Objective C!

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  79. Great comment thread. The shifting path of disruption is ultimately the arbiter of the app vs. web conversation. Apps are device contextually-specific tools that are used with the least amount of perceived resistance by the end user (in terms of memory, size, perceived security, replication of task, accessibility, etc.) iOS and Android apps proliferate in direct correlation to the hardware that supports them. Web apps on the other hand are more device agnostic with greater agility in terms of technological innovation and architecture. It’s the plethora of devices and bandwidths that actually make web apps sometimes cumbersome to the user at this point in time. If the paradigm shifts to where we can create truly device agnostic web applications (including holographic UI inclusive of the space/time dimension), with unparalleled API support, and bandwidth becomes a marginal issue – web apps will dominate. It would have been interesting to see where Eich took FFOS, as it pretty much is a gateway framework into that new paradigm. My bet is on imminent disruption, where the current gatekeepers of OS app distribution will soon find themselves alone in their proprietary cultivated gardens, disconnected from the rest of technological evolution.

  80. No, no, no. It’s not “Apps” vs “Browsers”. It’s centralization vs decentralization. Browsers leveled the playing field by offering a way for anyone without any gate keepers to publish and deploy applications.

    “App Stores” like Google’s various “web stores” and Apples App Store indeed act as gate keepers and ultimately artificially disrupt innovation. However, it’s not the technology (rich client programming vs HTML+JavaScript in a browser), it’s the deployment model.

    Apps are ultimately a /web service/ with a different front end (not HTML). Generally a better one than the document-based mess that HTML is finally trying to escape. We just have to find a better way to deploy Apps than company’s “stores”. Even with browsers, Google w/ Chrome is quickly moving into position so that they too will control the very platform that is the web by pushing aside other browsers and making their experience a “full stack” experience that puts other browsers and other operating systems at a disadvantage. Embrace and replace with a different logo than last time.

  81. Great thread. Yes i agree that apps are ultimately a different way of consuming information on web services. it has bought altogether a new avenue of of businesses, but i found it temporary just like the era where internet based software or application usage on desktops was emerging. This shall pass with integrating applications on wearable devices.

  82. This debate annoys me so much! The people making it NEVER seem to consider “small business” owners. Do they think every single business on the planet is going to have a mobile application? And even if they (idiotically) say “yes,” how in the hell would anyone ever find anything in the app stores? There will be BOTH in the future. Now, can we stop having this discussion? Sheesh!

  83. A caveat would be that there are 70 app stores – not just Google Play & App Store (iOS). As global distribution becomes a big deal, some of the restrictions should start to open up.

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