The importance of predictability for platform developers

2011-02-21

A platform is a technology or product upon which many other technologies or products are built. Some platforms are controlled by a single corporation: e.g. Windows, iOS, and Facebook. Some are controlled by standards committees or groups of companies: e.g. the web (html/http), RSS, and email (smtp).

Platforms succeed when they are 1) financially sustainable, and 2) have a sufficient number of developers that are financially sustainable. Fostering a successful developer community means convincing developers (and, possibly, investors in developers) that the platform is a worthwhile investment of time and money.

Developers who create applications for platforms take on all the usual risks related to launching a new product, but in addition take on platform-specific risks, namely:

  1. Platform decline: the platform will decline or go away entirely.
  2. Subsumption risk: the platform will subsume the functionality of the developer’s application.

The most successful platforms try to mitigate these risks for developers (not just the appearance of these risks). One way to mitigate platform decline risk is to launch the platform after the platform’s core product is already successful, as Facebook did with its app platform and Apple did with its iOS platform. Platforms that are not yet launched or established can use other methods to reassure developers; for example, when Microsoft launched the first Xbox they very publicly announced they would invest $1B in the platform.

To mitigate subsumption risk, the platform should give developers predictability around the platform’s feature roadmap. Platforms can do this explicitly by divulging their product roadmap but more often do it implicitly by demonstrating predictable patterns of feature development. Developers and investors are willing to invest in the iOS platform because – although Apple will take 30% of the revenue – it is highly unlikely that Apple will, say, create games to compete with Angry Birds or news to compete with The New York Times. Similarly, Facebook has thus far stuck to “utility” features and not competed with game makers, dating apps, etc.

Platforms that are controlled by for-profit businesses that don’t yet have established business models have special challenges. These companies are usually in highly experimental modes and therefore probably themselves don’t know their future core features. The best they can do to mitigate developers’ risks are 1) provide as much guidance as possible on future features, and 2) when developer subsumption is necessary, do so in a way that keeps the developer ecosystem financially healthy – for example, by acquiring the subsumed products.

The least risky platforms to develop on are successful open platforms like the web, email, and Linux. These platforms tend to change slowly and have very public development roadmaps. In the rare case where a technology is subsumed by an open platform, it is usually apparent far in advance. For example, Adobe Flash might be subsumed by the canvas element in HTML5, but Adobe had years to see HTML5 approaching and adjust its strategy accordingly. The predictability of open platforms is the main reason that vast amounts of wealth have been created on top of them and investment around them continues unabated.

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