Chris Dixon

The TripAdvisor IPO

- Great startup story. Raised a total of $4.2m in venture capital, sold to IAC/Expedia for $210M, and had some interesting adventures and pivots along the way. They started out by trying to aggregate reviews from other websites and white label their product to Expedia and other large travel websites. TripAdvisor.com was just a showcase that accidentally became a destination site. As of today TripAdvisor is an independent public company, trading at a market cap of $3.5B.

- Great for Boston. Fairly or not, Boston is often typecast as an infrastructure, B2B, hardware, and biotech town. Between Tripadvisor and Kayak, Boston now has at least two very important consumer internet companies.

- Big win for the “golden age of SEO”.  By which I’m referring to roughly 2001-2008 when “demand” for content (people typing in search queries) far outpaced supply (good content). Companies like Yelp and TripAdvisor (along with Wikipedia, IMDB, etc) grew huge during this period, almost entirely through SEO. They did this by getting highly defensible flywheels spinning where more content meant more SEO which meant more users which meant more content. It is now far more difficult to grow a startup primarily through SEO. Almost all monetizable search categories have vast excesses of SEOd content. Moreover, Google is creating their own content (e.g. Google Places) which, at least at times, they have favored in their search results.

- The user experience should improve. MG Siegler and others have criticized TripAdvisor for an excess of ads. I don’t disagree with MG, but I also think this is largely the result of the broken online ad attribution system that punishes intent generators and rewards intent harvestors. Travel reviews are for users at the beginning of the travel research process (which on average takes weeks), but all CPA and CPC ad programs pay only for the last click which usually means when users are purchasing tickets or making reservations. Hence review sites are forced to saturate their website real estate with purchasing widgets and display ads. Hopefully as online ad attribution improves this will no longer be necessary.

- It’s weird how little coverage this IPO got and how the financial press missed the interesting stories. TripAdvisor ended the day at ~$3.5B in market cap, making it the second most valuable East Coast consumer internet company (after Priceline). Every story I saw focused on the share price drop over the day. The fact that the price dropped from its opening price simply means the bankers mispriced the stock and therefore insiders didn’t get the sweetheart deal they thought they were getting.

Update: I interviewed the CEO/founder of TripAdvisor on TechCrunch yesterday. Topics include the company’s origins, relationship with Google, SOPA, and advice to fledgling entrepreneurs.

  • http://arnoldwaldstein.com awaldstein

    I would have missed this IPO if you hadn’t flagged it. Thanks.

    Your observation on SEO is provoking. SEO is still important for certain, less reliable to depend on and it’s changing by the moment.

    Back last April traffic breakdown from a normal  (successful) content site was approx:

        •    Direct  =   40-60%
        •    SEO    =   30-40%
        •    Social  =   20-35%

    I bet this has changed dramatically since G+.

    Numbers from an older post of mine ( http://awe.sm/5cE9p ).
       

    • http://www.cdixon.org chris dixon

      Yeah I’m not saying SEO isn’t important (see all the attacks I got on my older SEO post), just saying it isn’t a *strategy* anymore. It used to be you could say I’m doing X but with SEO and that was VC backable.  Now you can’t.  But you can say I’m doing X for mobile or social and that’s backable (rightly or wrongly).

      • http://arnoldwaldstein.com awaldstein

        I’d be interested in seeing the traffic funnel by source for marketplaces like Etsy. By definition they are SEO magnets as they aggregate niche segments which are keywords at their core. 

        My bet though is they are are direct->social->then natural with the social/natural search gap widening.

        • http://www.cdixon.org chris dixon

          when you say social – natural gap widening, you mean they are getting increasingly more traffic from social than from search? if that’s what you’d mean, i’d guess the same.

          • http://arnoldwaldstein.com awaldstein

            Yes. 

            Would be nice if a marketplace traffic strategist jumped in and shared some data.

            • Anonymous

              Hi guys, I’m one of the co-founders of Boticca (www.boticca.com), a curated marketplace for fashion accessories made by carefully selected talented designers.

              I can only speak about our own experience but whilst social is a big referrer of traffic (our largest after direct, SEO and emails), it is not a major source of sales for us.
              And speaking to other founders in the industry, it seems that social has yet to prove itself as an ecommerce enabler. 

              It has been a great source of customer engagement however.

              • http://arnoldwaldstein.com awaldstein

                Thanks!

                So…traffic and engagement are not trackable to transactions, even over time?

                If you’d like to share some data, I’d love to understand this more as I blog on community and commerce.  Pls ping me through my blog.

          • http://www.elieseidman.com Elie Seidman

            TA ranks in the top 3 or 4 of organic results for basically any travel related query in Google. I’m very skeptical that any of their other traffic sources comes close. 

      • Tom Harrison

        I watched TA’s SEO effort with admiration.  As you said, they certainly were able to establish themselves as a result of a brilliant and aggressive SEO play.  But by 2005 or 2006, they grew because they were good … and yes, because they were near the top of every SERP out there :-) .

  • http://www.aaronklein.com/ Aaron Klein

    So true. The stock price floating below the IPO price is not a bad sign for the company. It’s only bad for bankers, and any investors who snapped up shares hoping for a huge pop.
    If anything, it takes the pressure off the company and gives them some room to grow the valuation.

    • http://www.cdixon.org chris dixon

      yep, and is good for regular investors who want to invest for the long term and not just hand money over to bankers and insiders.

    • steven a

      Didn’t all expedia shareholders just lose 8% of their value?  I’m confused. How it this good for investors? Isn’t the pressure on them now to return value back to the shareholders?

      • http://www.cdixon.org chris dixon

        I would expect they got tripadvisor stock but not sure how it was structured.

      • http://www.aaronklein.com/ Aaron Klein

        Assuming that Expedia still holds TripAdvisor stock, that could be the case, but my bet is that the combined value of both companies is still greater today than it was before the spinoff, so they’ve probably still come out ahead.

        If you’re a long term investor (and if you’re investing in individual stocks you should be!) you want the valuation to be reasonable when you buy, so that it has room to grow before you sell.

        Wildly overhyped valuations in advance of earning that valuation are not anyone’s best friend, unless you can perfectly predict the future. But that’s a outlier of an outcome.

  • Katie Roof

    Hey! I interviewed the TripAdvisor CEO today (NOT about stock price): http://www.thedeal.com/video/tmt/tripadvisor-ceo-on-todays-nasd.php

    • http://www.cdixon.org chris dixon

      Just watched it.  Great interview and nice to see you talk about topics other than stock price! :)

      • Katie Roof

        Thanks!

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  • http://www.alearningaday.com Rohan

    NICE.
    Well deserved. Good service that adds value. I don’t do vacation planning without tripadvisor..

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  • http://www.facebook.com/zurstrassen Nicolas Zurstrassen

    Last paragraph is killer.  I would argue that a company that sells and sees its share price drop below its listing price on the first day has actually had the most successful listing possible.  Listing is a way to raise capital for the company therefore this just means that it made more money than it is actually valued.  

    The “value” prior to listing wasn’t know, the company named a price and managed to clear all its inventory at that price.  The actually “price” became known later, through the joys of the market, and it was less than the price the company had got at launch.  They were just smart business people and maximised the amount they took for the company (not for the bankers and their insiders).It has always amazed me that the coverage of most financial service dealings and what happens is counter to reality in any other business.

    Using a simpllified analogy (and I know that it is much more complicated than this).

    If i sell a house for one hundred dollars and at the end of the day the buyer sells it for 150 dollars, I’m an idiot who didn’t price my house properly.

    If I sell a house for one hundred dollars and at the end of the day the buyer can only get 80 dollars, I’m a genius salesman.

    Use this analogy for any transaction apart from IPO’s where the reverse is the case.

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  • Dennis Schaal

    It wasn’t an IPO…it was a spinoff to existing Expedia shareholders. No money was raised. That’s why there was so little press.

  • http://avc.com fredwilson

    maybe the big story is that we have an IPO and it is rational in terms of pricing (whereas the late stage private market is not)

    • http://www.cdixon.org chris dixon

      Good point. Maybe enough of these rational IPOs will cool off late stage private markets?

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  • http://yallaguy.com aarondelcohen

    Stephen Kaufer may be one of the Internet’s most underrated entrepreneurs and founders.  His endurance is exceptional and he faced incredible personal hardship.  As the company was soaring he lost his wife  and mother of his 4 kids to cancer.  I met him once probably 8 years ago and he had so much discipline about analytics long before it was vogue.  I’m going to check out the founder story.

  • http://www.elieseidman.com Elie Seidman

    East coast old school company that has been buried within Expedia Inc and has gotten little hype or press over the years. But has gotten an absolute ton of Google traffic. What they do, and how they do it, has not been sexy or press worthy – by the standards of today – for a few years. Were it a social or mobile company about to go public, different story. 

  • http://about.me/jelpern Jordan Elpern-Waxman

    Mainstream financial journalism is really financial entertainment. It’s sad how much they focus on stock price but maybe that’s all mass media readers can understand?

    • http://www.cdixon.org chris dixon

      yeah, it also annoys me when they talk about share price and not real metrics like enterprise value/market cap or ratios like p/e.  it is just entertainment but dangerous entertainment because people end up losing a lot of money as a result.

      • http://about.me/jelpern Jordan Elpern-Waxman

        See under CNBC, 1999.

        —————
        http://about.me/jelpern

        Sent from mobile

  • http://twitter.com/eurocheapo Tom and Pete Meyers

    There’s an excellent profile on Kaufer in the book “Founders at Work.” I find it refreshing that he’s still the one at the helm so many years later and continues to be energized about the company’s future direction.

    Also, while TA’s IPO story didn’t get much coverage, neither does the quality of TA’s network of sites they’ve assembled over time (AirfareWatchdog, Smarter Travel, Booking Buddy, etc.) 

    • http://afinanceguy.com afinanceguy

      Agree on the Founders at Work chapter – great read!  Was just about to post the same comment myself.

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  • Tom Harrison

    Chris — excellent observations indeed.  I was part of TA during the IAC acquisition and as part of a spin-off for several years after that — I admire and respect Steve Kaufer as a person who simply was not stupidly greedy: he is instead smart, talented, calm, canny and shrewd in perhaps the most flattering way possible.

    Many people raised an eyebrow when he sold his company to IAC for a “mere” $210M.  At the time, the company had I believe around 50 employees, but had bottom line profits of over 50% (gross, not net!).  But Expedia was the big fish, and a huge customer already, and it was absolutely the right thing to get bought in order to make TripAdvisor the success it is today.  Who knew that you could sell a company more than once?  Steve did.

    TA is a company that is run like a real company, not the zoom-and-dive companies that seem to characterize most of the first Internet bubble, and a few of the current one.  Not to mention any names.  (Groupon).

    At the time of the IAC/Expedia acquisition, there was a running joke that TripAdvisor’s revenues amounted to no more than rounding error in Expedia’s mighty balance sheet.  But Steve and his brilliant team were just quietly and persistently able to soldier along, through recession, through all of the competition, through a major reorg of the travel industry (partly due to TripAdvisor).  They just stuck to doing what they did great, and when other companies did complementary things, or even did what TA did better, they bought them and kept them running, doing those great things, and learning from them.  No hubris, no grandstanding, just smart and sensible deals that worked for all parties.  

    And over a few years, TA’s contributions, became a great deal more than just rounding error, and soon enough became a core part and driving part of Expedia.  Indeed, I think it’s safe to say that TripAdvisor outgrew Expedia, and that is what likely lead to their IPO.

    Nope: not greed, or the need for VC’s to cash out, or even for people to get rich.  Just because it makes good business sense.  (And Chris, major credit to Hunch for making the same kind of smart decision recently — congratulations!)

    The idea that TA’s price didn’t double on the first day is just a simple reflection of Steve Kaufer’s workmanlike and sensible view of the world.  He is honest, fair, smart as hell, and a good guy.  An IPO whose first trade is 50% above open is nothing more than a trick to make the original investors even more rich, at the expense of the people who are true believers, and then get the shaft.  An opening price that reflects the fair market value of the company has Steve’s handwriting all over it.

    And for those of us who are working hard to make equally successful Boston-based businesses, I would like to think that these New England values of common sense, honesty, hard work, and being experienced and smart are, after some years in the Internet world, beginning to have real and sustainable value.  While there are certainly land-grab opportunities available, there’s something to be said for building a company that’s about providing real value to people, as TripAdvisor has done.

    Congratulations to the great team at TRIP!

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  • Albert Hartigan

    Kayak is HQed in Norwalk Ct ( along with Priceline)  2.5 hrs south of Boston, and 40 miles north of NYC…FYI..

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